Showing posts with label Greatest Black Swan Stock in History. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greatest Black Swan Stock in History. Show all posts

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Greatest Black Swan Stock in History?

http://www.georgenichols.com/publishedwritings/xla/

excerpt from above George Nichols link:
My work on this stock--thanks to the resulting controversy--may be the most memorable of my achievements.
In 1999, an obscure Cayman-Islands based realty firm refashioned itself into Xcelera.com, a dot-com holding company. The stock immediately skyrocketed--to a peak value near $12 billion (in Mar. '00).
The magnitude of this runup is truly staggering, and perhaps unparalleled. In articles such as NY Observer journalist Christopher Byron wrote [boldface added] "...Xcelera’s stock price soared from 30 cents per share to $223 per share--which is to say, rose by more than 74,000 percent in value--which is, I would suspect, the "greatest one-year rise of any exchange-listed stock in the history of Wall Street."1
To illustrate, a lucky shareholder with an initial $100 investment would have seen that amount quickly balloon to $74,000!
Commentary from analysts and writers (including a Microsoft MoneyCentral journalist owning shares) helped propel this mania. This also came amidst a market fervor for all things dot-com, partly fueled by investment banks routinely recommending lousy stocks (in order to boost banking revenue).
However, I challenged popular sentiment by arguing the stock was dangerously overhyped, as detailed in this 3-page stock analyst report and 1-page newswire.
I was promptly deluged with hate emails, nearly 100 of them, many from frenzied daytraders seeking quick riches (as opposed to investors with a long-term view). This was documented in "Stock Rage"--a feature story in Individual Investor Magazine--as well as a goofy hate mail wall I created.

Post-Mortem

The company quietly disappeared after the stock was delisted in 2004.

Footnote
1. My trailing-year calculations indicate a return of "only" around 65,735%, but Byron notes elsewhere that his approximate 74,000% figure refers to a trailing 15-month return. Either figure is dramatically higher than a typical stock's long-term annual returns of 10%-12%. See also Byron's article "How C.E.O. Alex Vic Sucked $400 Million by Selling Xcelera."