Monday, April 17, 2017


From Horizon Kinetics' 4Q16 conference call last January in regards to Bitcoin:

In conclusion, we’re not recommending that anybody run out and put 10% of their portfolio into it. But a very small portion of your assets in this, in success mode, could actually have a very favorable outcome for your total returns, looking out over an extended period of time. Therefore, I believe that the upside potential is so enormous that you’d be foolish not to have some. I think it’s more imprudent not to own it than it is to own it.

Friday, April 14, 2017

Intrexon - Potential Black Swan Stock

check out Bill Miller's comments starting at the 19:00 minute mark

Has the potential to be the largest market cap company in history.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Potential Black Swan Stocks - Fannie & Freddie

Bill Ackman's 2014 presentation values FNMA & FMCC at $23 per share using the current G-fees of 60 basis points.  With Fannie & Freddie both trading under $2.00 per share you could make over 10x on your money.  However, his presentation assumes that the government's warrants are exercised.

The Michael Krimminger amicus curiae states "[A]lthough the government is entitled to be repaid amounts that it provides the institution during conservatorship, once it has been repaid with interest, it is entitled to no more."  I estimate that Fannie & Freddie will have repaid the government with interest around YE2017.  After that, I believe that the warrants can no longer be exercised. That would bring Ackman's calculation of intrinsic value up to $115 per share.

However, Ackman's presentation assumes a 2.5% capital ratio, and that it will be built up by YE2024 through retained earnings.  My guess is that there will be an equity raise (dilution) to achieve adequate capital levels more quickly.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Five Global Catastrophies That Could Happen Tomorrow

1) Indonesia's forgotten supervolcano

2) The Hilina Slump
          Big Island of Hawaii could drop 12,000 km^3 of rock into the Pacific Ocean

3) The North Sea Tsunami
          submarine landslide from submarine glacial deposites

4) The Cascadian 'Big One'
          massive earthquake from the subduction zone off of N. American west coast running from northern California to Vancouver Island

5) An extra-terrestrial threat
          another Carrington event