Monday, April 17, 2017


From Horizon Kinetics' 4Q16 conference call last January in regards to Bitcoin:

In conclusion, we’re not recommending that anybody run out and put 10% of their portfolio into it. But a very small portion of your assets in this, in success mode, could actually have a very favorable outcome for your total returns, looking out over an extended period of time. Therefore, I believe that the upside potential is so enormous that you’d be foolish not to have some. I think it’s more imprudent not to own it than it is to own it.

Update from 3Q17 letter:

I might think that a 0.5% position in the Bitcoin Investment Trust (ticker GBTC) in an account could be very useful. On the one hand, using a figure discussed earlier, let’s say I think it could appreciate by 333x.  That 0.5% weighting would cause the entire account to appreciate by 166%. In dollar terms, if a $100,000 account purchased $500 worth of bitcoin, which then increased by 333x, the account would be worth $266,000.  If this occurred over a 10-year period, and if nothing else in the account appreciated at all, the account would still experience a 10% annualized return. Or, the account could lose $500. The equivalent of a night out at the theater, with dinner and parking.   

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